Permacrisis
A holistic path forward
Hey everyone,
It's been a while since I last wrote, and given everything that's happened, I felt it was time to reconnect and share some thoughts. As I sat down to design the 2025 strategy for my companies, aiming to predict possible fluctuations and be ready for them, I couldn't help but reflect on the rollercoaster of the last three years. They've been super hard, haven't they?
We've all heard the acronyms—VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible), RUPT, TUNA, DEST—each attempting to capture the chaos of our times. But here's the thing: "How you name the ship is how it will sail." Calling it a "permacrisis" doesn't just label our experience; it shapes our approach.
Are there any Future-Proof Strategies we can use?
In trying to map out a plan for 2025, I realized there's no such thing as a future-proof strategy. No framework is ready-made for the unpredictability we've been facing. The last three years have shown us that uncertainty is the new normal, and clinging to rigid plans can be more hindering than helpful.
Western paradigm
Most of us, consciously or not, build our strategies based on the U.S. economy. It makes sense—the U.S. is a significant player on the global stage. However, the Western paradigm is deeply rooted in growth and competition.
It's about racing ahead in fast-growing markets, pushing for positive transformation, and outpacing rivals.
But let's pause and ask: Is relentless competition the only way? In times of global upheaval, maybe it's time to rethink this approach.
I've started embracing what I call corporate stoicism. It's about accepting what we're given and working with it. Instead of yearning for ideal conditions, we focus on the present reality—the economy, the market, and global events—and navigate accordingly.
Polycrisis
We're not dealing with just one crisis; we're in the epicenter of multiple overlapping crises—a polycrisis. Think about it:
Global Impact: Pandemics, climate change, geopolitical tensions.
Personal Impact: Health concerns, mental well-being, family challenges.
Company Effect: Remote work transitions, supply chain disruptions.
Country Effect: Political shifts, economic policies, social movements.
Industry Effect: Technological disruptions, changing consumer behaviors.
It's like being the main character in a story where all these factors are spliced together, both controlled and uncontrolled. We're navigating global impacts while managing personal and organizational challenges.
The Integral Approach
So, what's the key to strategy right now? I believe it's adopting an integral approach—combining multiple dimensions to create a holistic framework for addressing challenges.
Once, when I was deeply upset, someone asked me: 'Can you control or change what happened?' The answer was no. Then they said, 'What's the point of being upset? Save your energy for situations where you can make a difference and impact.'
That lesson stayed with me, so we have Levels of Response to Crisis = Levels of Influence on Reality.
Our arsenal for navigating this complex landscape includes:
Paradigm of Thinking: Shifting our mindset to be more adaptable and open to new possibilities.
Mission and Values: Staying true to our core principles, which serve as our North Star.
Culture: Fostering an environment that encourages resilience, innovation, and collaboration.
Soft Skills: Enhancing communication, empathy, leadership, and teamwork.
Psychological Competencies: Building mental toughness, emotional intelligence, and stress management.
Hard Skills: Continuously developing technical expertise and industry knowledge.
Working Tools: Leveraging technology and systems that enhance efficiency and flexibility.
Where I’m applying it today:
Organizational Level
Systematic Approach
I am implementing structured processes while remaining flexible enough to pivot when needed.
Team Level
Integration
I am encouraging synergy and collaboration, breaking down silos, and promoting shared goals.
Personal Level
Anti-Crisis Mindset
I am cultivating resilience, adaptability, and proactive problem-solving.
Why would it potentially work?
Integrating personal, team, and organizational levels ensures that every part of the system supports the whole; this is a holistic view.
Recognizing multi-layered competencies, which are both hard and soft skills, is essential to be versatile in our responses.
Ensuring that individual actions align with team efforts and organizational goals creates coherence and amplifies impact.
Moving from foundational skills to advanced competencies aligns with how we naturally grow and adapt.
"If the blind lead the blind, both will fall into a pit." (Matthew 15:14). Funny—I never thought I'd be quoting the Bible, but here we are.
The point is that we need awareness and vision. As leaders, entrepreneurs, or anyone with ambitions, visions, and missions, we can't afford to be oblivious to the signs around us.
Preparing for the Next Crisis
"What matters is not so much why the next crisis occurred but why we were unprepared for it."
We may not be able to predict every crisis, but we can build organizations and mindsets that are resilient. By focusing on adaptability, continuous learning, and a holistic approach, we're better equipped to handle whatever comes our way.
Oh yes, I wrote my prediction for 2024 in December 2023 and its results. I summarized them for you below. The idea was back then to try to predict and analyze this year, and yeah, let’s see what we have with it:
1. Geopolitical Landscape:
Prediction: A multipolar world with significant elections influencing global dynamics.
Outcome: The year witnessed pivotal elections in major economies, including the United States, India, and the European Union, reshaping international relations and economic policies.
2. Economic Growth and Corporate Investments:
Prediction: Increased R&D and advertising budgets among major corporations, indicating economic optimism.
Outcome: Companies like Salesforce and HubSpot reported revenue growth in Q1 2024, reflecting heightened investments in innovation and marketing.
3. Marketing and Sales Expenditure:
Prediction: Global marketing and sales spending is projected to reach $2.3 trillion in 2024, driven by digital transformation and the need for customer acquisition.
Outcome: While exact figures are pending, there has been a notable increase in digital marketing investments as businesses adapt to evolving consumer behaviors.
*WARC's Global Ad Spend Outlook projected a 10.5% increase in global advertising spending for 2024, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time. WARC
**Statista reported that global advertising and marketing spending was expected to grow by 7.7% in 2024, reaching nearly $1.76 trillion. Statista
***In 2023, global marketing and sales expenditures were estimated at approximately $2.1 trillion.
4. Technological Advancements:
Prediction: Continued investment in cloud computing, AI, and expansion into emerging markets like the metaverse and IoT.
Outcome: Tech giants have maintained significant investments in AI and cloud services, with ongoing explorations into new digital frontiers.
5. Bitcoin Halving Event:
Prediction: Bitcoin's halving in Q2 2024 would lead to increased price volatility and potential appreciation.
Outcome: The halving occurred as anticipated, resulting in notable price fluctuations and a general upward trend in Bitcoin's value.
6. Potential Market Downturn:
Prediction: Warnings of a significant market crash, with potential declines in major indices and real estate prices.
Outcome: While certain sectors experienced volatility, no major market crash has occurred.
7. Strategic Business Focus:
Prediction: Emphasis on balancing growth with caution, profitability, and adaptability, particularly in Q1 and Q2.
Outcome: Many businesses adopted prudent growth strategies, focusing on sustainable expansion and risk management.
Overall, my predictions have primarily aligned with the events of this year.
I wanted to share these reflections as an entrepreneur who is navigating the same stormy seas as you.
Stay strong, stay adaptable, and let's make the most of what we have.
Post-Credit Scene
Thanks for reading. To chill and restore your energy after this reading, I've prepared a few TV series I've liked in the past few weeks that genuinely inspired me.
Arcane (Netflix): Nothing, just a beautiful animated series about the origins of iconic characters from the "League of Legends" universe
Shōgun: James Clavell's epic novel transports readers to 17th-century Japan, weaving a tale of adventure, political intrigue, and cultural discovery. It's a profound exploration of East meets West, offering insights into the complexities of Japanese society during that era.
Kaos (Netflix): This series presents a darkly comedic and modern reimagining of Greek mythology. With Jeff Goldblum portraying a paranoid Zeus, "Kaos" offers a fresh and irreverent take on ancient tales, blending humor with contemporary themes.
Have a fantastic rest of your week.
Vlad